Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.085545 0.095251 0.105227 0.116222 0.127971 0.140127 0.153628
2025-01-19 0.067981 0.082310 0.097843 0.115808 0.135893 0.157539 0.182514
2025-01-26 0.060673 0.078813 0.099352 0.124025 0.152563 0.184249 0.221805
2025-02-02 0.051776 0.072014 0.095896 0.125601 0.161009 0.201347 0.250252
2025-02-09 0.045400 0.067225 0.093954 0.128218 0.170113 0.218861 0.279051
2025-02-16 0.038982 0.061503 0.090120 0.127885 0.175177 0.231285 0.301715
2025-02-23 0.036601 0.060687 0.092173 0.134637 0.188751 0.253858 0.336545
2025-03-02 0.034099 0.059359 0.093296 0.140015 0.200524 0.274261 0.368902
2025-03-09 0.029284 0.054211 0.088857 0.137751 0.202306 0.282160 0.385913
2025-03-16 0.024740 0.048925 0.083763 0.134191 0.202070 0.287285 0.399327
2025-03-23 0.023237 0.048107 0.084814 0.138857 0.212523 0.305890 0.429588
2025-03-30 0.021372 0.046501 0.084570 0.141618 0.220403 0.321234 0.455857
2025-04-06 0.019261 0.044403 0.083638 0.143612 0.227636 0.336320 0.482642
2025-04-13 0.016990 0.041787 0.081770 0.144199 0.233001 0.349143 0.506860
2025-04-20 0.017021 0.043267 0.086283 0.154156 0.251414 0.379296 0.553670
2025-04-27 0.015356 0.041432 0.085437 0.156153 0.258787 0.394980 0.582001
2025-05-04 0.014079 0.040166 0.085382 0.159254 0.267688 0.412739 0.613151
2025-05-11 0.012314 0.037686 0.083140 0.158894 0.271600 0.423804 0.635614
2025-05-18 0.012101 0.038371 0.086212 0.166721 0.287283 0.450837 0.679223
2025-05-25 0.011641 0.038465 0.088243 0.172939 0.300699 0.474901 0.719082
2025-06-01 0.009915 0.035516 0.084769 0.170325 0.301151 0.481208 0.735367
2025-06-08 0.008203 0.032271 0.080501 0.166212 0.299213 0.484107 0.747035
2025-06-15 0.007851 0.032267 0.082113 0.171603 0.311373 0.506532 0.784953